Everyday Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The mean number of everyday killings per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official data. But, security specialists have warned that murder data might not signal better national safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had in these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the least figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it may obscure periods when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.