Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
