Is the Entertainment Fading? The Fall of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad have scored 10 fewer scores from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign is the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way teams have been scoring increasingly from set-plays instead.

Comparing goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, leading to 13 fewer altogether.

If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots clubs are making show a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

And despite the significant rise in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more shots generated from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating how effective sides are at discovering methods to convert from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Reveal a Story

Over 300 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures to date works out at 2.74 scores per game, if this persists for the whole season could be the least for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

But just under 200 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the lowest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign also marks the sole English top-flight campaign to see goals scored more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolves have recorded the largest decline, scoring just four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.

Excluding Wolves, England's top division's fall in goals from open play is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the London's seven clubs scoring a minimum of five fewer goals from open-play than last season.

In fairness, this is mainly because them netting lots of goals at the beginning of last season rather than them really struggling to convert in open-play this season.

Meanwhile Man City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date arriving in open play.

Set-Piece Success

We've compared newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off winners Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than the Saints managed in their opening 11 matches on their way to the drop the previous campaign.

In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the most significant jump, with each team making up for the five less goals that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.

Man United have scored double the number scores from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches the previous campaign prior to the manager assumed control, while Sunderland again prove better at netting than the similar-colored team they replaced.

Manchester City seem unaware of the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, since they've netted a reduction of three than last season, similar to the Reds, even if that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and increased from set-plays, while Man City are the unique club to go against the grain up to now by achieving the contrary.

It remains to be seen to watch if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they find again their general attacking flair and commence netting more goals in open-play too.

Andrea Vega
Andrea Vega

A data scientist and writer passionate about AI ethics and digital transformation, sharing insights from industry experience.